Crude flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to near-prewar levels, but the way that oil is reaching buyers has changed in ways that could weaken Iran's position at the Strait of Hormuz. Much of the region's crude, the report says, is now moving through routes and shipping arrangements that were not in place before the war. That shift has raised the question of whether Iran still holds the same leverage over the chokepoint that it did before the conflict.
The figures come from commodity analytics firm Kpler, which estimates that at least 16.5 million barrels per day of crude left the region between September 1 and 28. That volume matches the prewar average once Iranian exports are excluded from the comparison. In effect, supply from the Gulf measured without Iran has returned to its earlier pace.
What stands out is not just the volume but the pattern behind it. Rather than a simple return to prewar flows, the oil is traveling on routes and under shipping setups that did not exist before the conflict. The report frames this as a sign that Iran may be losing some of its leverage over the strait, since the market has found ways to keep crude moving that do not rely on the previous arrangements.
The recovery is not presented as complete. The data notes that while crude volumes have climbed, a refinery bottleneck remains, indicating that the region still faces constraints even as export figures improve.
For companies moving crude through the Gulf, the development raises practical questions about how to assess supply risk. If a growing share of regional exports travels on routes and arrangements that differ from the prewar pattern, disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz may carry less weight in overall flows than they once did. How much leverage Iran retains over the waterway remains an open question in the data.
Source: Oilprice
