ANZ has lifted its year-end forecast for Brent crude to roughly $105 per barrel, a $10 upward revision the bank announced on Friday. The change comes as banks reassess their oil price outlooks amid deepening concern about supply. The updated view is built on the expectation that today's market constraints will still be in place through December.
The revised projection assumes that oil exports from the Middle East, the availability of shipping, and fuel supplies all remain restricted until the end of the year. In a note carried by Bloomberg, the bank's strategists argued that the forecast "does not require another geopolitical shock." Instead, it prices in the continuation of pressures already acting on regional exports, freight capacity and refined-product markets.
That distinction shapes how the forecast should be read. ANZ is not counting on a fresh escalation to push prices higher; it assumes existing bottlenecks simply fail to ease. The year-end price path therefore follows from the persistence of tightness in export flows, vessel availability and product supply, rather than from any new disruption. On that reading, the $10 increase reflects how long existing disruptions are expected to last, not a judgment that they will worsen.
For refiners, shippers and traders, the revision signals that the bank now views the current tightness as durable through year-end rather than a temporary phenomenon. The outcome hinges on the three factors the bank itself identified: the pace of Middle Eastern exports, shipping availability, and the condition of fuel and refined-product markets over the weeks ahead. Should those pressures ease sooner than assumed, the basis for the higher target would weaken accordingly.
Source: Oilprice
