Gulf Exports Near Pre-War Levels, But Hormuz Share Low

Crude and condensate exports from the Gulf have climbed back to roughly their pre-war volumes, according to a Standard Chartered estimate, even though the share of those barrels passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below earlier levels. The bank puts September exports at about 16.5 million barrels per day, a figure that covers Gulf producers other than Iran and counts barrels shipped on bypass routes such as Fujairah and the Red Sea. On that measure, total export volumes are broadly back to where they stood before the war.

The composition of those flows has changed substantially. Standard Chartered calculates that only 60% of the September barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, down from 83% before the war. The rest of the estimate is made up of barrels moving on bypass routes such as Fujairah and the Red Sea, meaning a much larger share of Gulf exports than before the war is moving without a strait transit.

For anyone tracking Middle East supply, the numbers suggest that headline export volumes alone no longer describe how Gulf oil is moving. The same total can now be split very differently between strait transits and bypass shipments than it was before the war. That shift matters when judging exposure to the strait, since a smaller proportion of barrels depends on that single passage than in the pre-war period.

The figures are Standard Chartered's estimates and come with a defined scope: Iranian exports are excluded, while barrels moving via Fujairah and Red Sea routes are included. That definition matters when the September total is compared with other published export numbers. The bank's core point is that the recovery in volumes has not been matched by a recovery in Hormuz transits, which remain well below their pre-war share.

For the industry, the takeaway is that Gulf supply has recovered in volume terms while the geography of its export routes has not. A larger share of barrels than before the war is moving on routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz, according to the bank's September estimate. For those watching freight and supply security around the Gulf, the strait's share of flows, not just total exports, is the number that shows how normal Middle East oil movements have become.

Source: Oilprice